I don't have to tell you there is a great deal of misinformation about solar in the media these days. Providing accurate information to combat this misinformation has been a constant struggle for industry veterans. An especially hotly contested topic is the closing gap between the cost of solar and traditional energy technologies (coal, nuclear, gas). The closing of this gap, or the accomplishment of "grid-parity" of solar, will result in a paradigm shift for the industry. Subsidies will no longer be necessary to help solar compete - changing the game completely.
As with any new technology, there are always naysayers. Some of these naysayers (Group 1) argue that grid-parity is still a long way off and others (Group 2) say that solar will never be competitive - that it's all pie in the sky ideas with no hope of ever becoming a reality. The reality is, Group 1 can justify their stance by simply changing a variable or two in the math to calculate grid-parity. Since we can argue all day over which assumptions are right, I won't even go there. Instead, I'd like to point out why the second group is simply wrong. This is why:
By definition, grid-parity will occur at different times in different locations. Grid parity in Sacramento, CA, for example, will occur when the levelized-cost-of-energy (LCOE) of solar in Sacramento equals the LCOE of traditional fuel used in Sacramento. The LCOE is calculated by adding up all the costs associated with a power plant (in present-value terms) and dividing it by the total expected power production over the lifetime of the plant, resulting in the cost in $ to produce 1 kWh of power. It is inevitable that solar will hit grid parity because the variables associated with producing 1 kWh of power are determined greatly favor solar in the long term:
(1) materials to build a power plant, (2) inflation of ongoing fuel costs, (3) technological improvements, and (4) labor costs (building and maintenance). Solar has traditional fuels beat in each of these categories. (1) The cost of solar capacity is dropping at an overwhelming rate while power plants only get more expensive to build; (2) solar has NO fuel costs while the cost of traditional fuels will only go up with inflation over time; (3) technological improvements will continue to reap greater benefits for solar than it will for a largely refined method of generating power using traditional fuels and (4) labor costs will only increase with inflation and traditional fuels require more labor hours/kWh (*anyone have some data supporting this idea?)
The fact is, while it's anyone calculation (guess) as to when we'll hit grid parity, it is a FACT that solar WILL hit grid parity on day. Group 2 is simply wrong.
*I don't have any data supporting the idea that solar requires fewer labor hours/kWh of power produced, but it seems like it isn't even a competition. I'd love to
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